I. Steel futures market prices
On May 17, the domestic steel market was up and down, with Tangshan Qian’an Pu Fang billet taxed up 20 at 3,460 yuan/ton. On the transaction side, the futures snail rose, just demand and speculation into the market actively, the market turnover improved significantly.
On May 17, the futures rose, closing at 3715, up 1.45%, with DIF and DEA overlapping and the RSI trilinear indicator at 43-59, running between the middle and lower Bollinger band.
On May 17, three companies lowered the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-50 yuan/ton, and three companies raised the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-50 yuan/ton.
II. Four major varieties of steel market prices
Construction steel: On May 17, the average price of 20mm Grade 3 seismic rebar in 31 major cities nationwide was RMB3,825/ton, up RMB3/ton from the previous trading day. In the short term, with the resumption of blast furnace production in some areas, rebar production is expected to pick up this week, the recent stronger rainfall areas in the south have moved south, rain weather has a greater impact on demand, the overall supply and demand fundamentals have not eased. At the same time, the eighth round of coke reduction opened, the cost side of the support is still weak, the fundamental performance is not good, is expected to 18 domestic construction steel prices or will continue to be the main shock running.
Hot-rolled coil: On May 17, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities nationwide was RMB 3,895/ton, down RMB 10/ton from the previous trading day. The futures shock upward, boosting market confidence, some market prices upward, speculative demand is still available, turnover has improved. Comprehensive view, although the market has picked up, but the fear of high sentiment is still there, the high price of goods will not be strong, coupled with the inventory is at a high level, is expected to 18 hot rolled coil prices or will be shockingly stable operation.
Cold rolled coil: May 17, the national average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities 4508 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Black system futures plate narrow upward, to a certain extent, boost market confidence, some market spot prices rose slightly, but most merchants said that the current downstream demand is still light, and the downstream of their own orders are not good, the overall market trading atmosphere is not active, short-term spot prices are difficult to get out of the reversal of the market, merchants are cautiously pessimistic attitude to the market. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic cold rolled coil price will be weak and stable on the 18th.
Medium-thick plate: May 17, the average price of 20mm general plate in 24 major cities across the country 4216 yuan / ton, down 3 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. Macro expectations are insufficient, coupled with the continued decline in steel prices earlier, resulting in a more cautious upstream and downstream mentality, downstream just need to purchase, traders sentiment to neutral short. And the supply-side recovery is stronger than the demand-side, resulting in a slightly weaker market trend, price support is insufficient. However, with the price of raw materials lift, billet cost-side profits have recovered slightly, there may be room for a rebound in the finished product. Comprehensive view, steel prices in the continuous grinding bottom, boosted by the futures, is expected to 18 national thick plate prices may have a narrow upward movement.
III. Raw fuel market prices
Imported ore: On May 17, the mainstream market price of imported iron ore at Shandong port was shaking and running strongly. PB powder at Rizhao port was quoted at 788, 792, 795, 799 and 800 yuan/ton.
Coke: On May 17, coke market prices were weak and stable. On the raw material side, as some coal prices bottomed out and stabilized, coking coal online bidding rose and fell this week, with individual coal types rebounding slightly and market sentiment improving slightly. On the coke enterprise side, the profitability of the coke enterprises is still good and the start-up is stable, traders are inquiring for goods, coke enterprises’ shipments are improving, the coke inventory in the plant has dropped significantly, which is better than the previous period, but some of the oversold resources have gone back up, and individual coke enterprises have the phenomenon of pity sales to rise. Downstream, the profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline of iron production has slowed down, coupled with the entry of intermediate trade links, coke demand has picked up.
Steel scrap: On May 17, the average price of steel scrap in 45 major markets nationwide was 2,417 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, the steel mill end due to the performance of the finished product is still poor, production is relatively slow, steel enterprises in a cautious mindset, cost reduction and efficiency is still a top priority, as far as scrap is concerned, the current decline in scrap is slightly less than iron ore, no cost-effective advantage, so the short-term steel enterprises with waste will continue to be weak. Market side, the current social inventory of scrap steel continues to reduce, the base collection is difficult is a common phenomenon, the tight balance of supply and demand for scrap steel will continue, comprehensive expected 18 scrap steel market or narrow fluctuations in the main.
IV. Steel market price forecast
According to Mysteel research 237 traders, May 15-16 building materials turnover of 186,000 tons and 139,000 tons respectively. At present, the steel market volume is very unstable, downstream purchase on demand, but speculative demand follows the futures market fluctuations, behind also reflects the market intertwined long and short, fierce game.
On the one hand, with the recent significant downward shift in costs, steel mills losses narrowed significantly, continue to cut production will or not strong, raw fuel prices gain support, supply and demand contradictions do appear to ease. On the other hand, the property market recovery slowed down, high temperature and rainy weather, such as the impact of demand performance is not tough enough. Overall, the market uncertainties, short-term steel prices fluctuate frequently, in the range of oscillating operation.
