After the 11th National Day holiday, driven by stronger than expected demand, cold rolling inventory remained at a lower level, prices significantly increased, and demand expectations were higher than reality; The price adjustment policy of steel mills in November saw a significant increase.
With the support of national policies, during the National Day holiday, the sales of household appliances turned from decline to increase, and the retail sales of passenger cars rebounded significantly, once again boosting market confidence; With high prices in the market and limited acceptance of terminal procurement, actual demand has slowed down and exceeded expectations, leading to chaotic market quotations and increasing pessimism among merchants. Price reductions in shipments have facilitated transactions.
From the supply side, the production output of steel mills in October slightly increased compared to the previous month, and low-priced orders from end-users and steel traders were clearly active; In terms of inventory, the rate of decline in cold-rolled social inventory is gradually slowing down, and new resources will begin to arrive in the market next week;
On the demand side, after a significant drop in cold-rolled prices, there is a surge in procurement demand; On the cost side, the fluctuation of raw material prices is relatively strong, and production costs have risen. In October, steel mills received full orders and had a strong willingness to raise prices.
However, in the later period of October, the market’s resource costs for arrivals were high, and merchants’ willingness to lower prices was not high. On the demand side, cautious volume increases still need to be driven by favorable policies. It is expected that in the short term, there is room for a decline in cold rolling prices, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation.
From expected release to policy implementation, returning to the fundamentals of supply and demand, the price return enters the adjustment stage (expected management is still ongoing, overall improvement), and gradually enters the verification period.
